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Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, September 2005, p. 3658-3662, Vol. 49, No. 9
0066-4804/05/$08.00+0 doi:10.1128/AAC.49.9.3658-3662.2005
Copyright © 2005, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.
Department of Pharmacy-Toxicology,1 Department of Pharmacology, Hospital Cochin-Saint Vincent de Paul, AP-HP, René Descartes University, Paris, France,2 Department of Pediatrics, Hôpital Central, Biomedical Science Yaoundé University I, Yaoundé, Cameroon,3 Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, Paris, France4
Received 24 February 2005/ Returned for modification 23 April 2005/ Accepted 4 June 2005
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In the study described in the present report, the pharmacokinetics of quinine and the relationship of quinine exposure to the therapeutic response were examined in children in Cameroon with uncomplicated malaria caused by P. falciparum receiving a 5-day course of oral quinine.
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Study design. The study was monocentric, prospective, open, and noncomparative. The protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Cochin Hospital, Paris, France. The clinical part of the study was conducted in the Pediatric Unit of Yaoundé Central Hospital, Yaoundé, Cameroon. The number of patients to be enrolled was 30. This sample size was chosen to ensure precise estimates of the pharmacokinetic parameters. After selection for inclusion in the study, the patients received quinine (8.3 mg/kg, expressed as quinine base, every 8 h) as a formiate salt syrup for 5 days (15 administrations). The precisely measured dose was administered in the mouth of the child by using a syringe.
Clinical assessment. Fever (temperature, >38°C), cough, vomiting, and inappetence were recorded every day for 5 days and then on days 7 and 14. Side effects were recorded at the same times.
Concentration measurements. Nine blood samples per patient were obtained by venous puncture at time zero and 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 24, 48, and 56 h after the onset of treatment. The blood samples were collected in heparinized tubes. Following centrifugation, all plasma samples were stored at 20°C until analysis. The plasma quinine concentrations in all samples were determined by liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection after liquid-liquid extraction. Three quality controls (2, 6, and 8 mg/liter) were used with each series. The interday coefficients of variation (CVs) for the controls were less than 10%, and their bias was less than 5%. The limit of quantification was 1 mg/liter.
Pharmacodynamic (PD) measurements. Blood samples were collected in EDTA-containing tubes at time zero; 12, 24, 48, 72, and 96 h; and days 7 and 14. Thin smears were prepared from each blood sample (three slides per sample), the slides were stained with Giemsa stain, and the parasitized erythrocytes were counted. Counting was done in microscopic fields containing approximately 200 erythrocytes, and the level of parasitemia was expressed as the number of parasites per 100 erythrocytes. A negative smear was defined as one in which no asexual form was seen in 100 microscopic fields.
Pharmacokinetic analysis.
The data were analyzed by a population approach. The basic model was a one-compartment open model with first-order absorption and elimination rates. The pharmacokinetic parameters were the absorption constant (Ka), the apparent volume of distribution (V/F), and the apparent elimination clearance (CL/F). The last two parameters are known to increase with time during the first days of treatment, owing to the decrease of the concentration of
1-glycoprotein acid, the binding protein of quinine in plasma, which results in an increasing unbound fraction (fu) (5). To account for time-varying protein binding, fu was assumed to increase linearly with time (t) from 0 to 72 h, according to the equation fu = b · (t 36) + 0.15, where b is a slope parameter, and the intercept (0.15) is the typical value of fu at 36 h (4). The median values of V/F and CL/F were assumed to be related to the child's body weight (BW). Hence, the model for the median parameters
/F and
/F was
/F = fu(
1 +
5 · BW) and
/F = fu(
2 +
6 · BW), where the
's are fixed effects. The individual parameters (CL/F, V/F, Ka, and b) were assumed to arise from a multivariate lognormal distribution, with the median and variance-covariance to be estimated. The residual error model (i.e., the model for the discrepancies between the observed and the predicted concentrations [Cobs and Cpred, respectively]) was Cobs = Cpred · exp(
), where
is a random variable with a normal distribution, zero mean, and variance to be estimated. With this model, the CV of the residual error is approximately constant and is equal to the SD of
.
Since the pharmacokinetic model was nonlinear, it was implemented as a set of differential equations. The area under the predicted concentration-versus-time curve (AUC) was calculated by numerical integration from 0 to 72 h. The average concentration (Cav) was estimated as AUC/72.
Parameters were estimated by using NONMEM with the first-order conditional estimation method (1). Hypothesis testing (e.g., comparison of alternative models) was based on the likelihood ratio test. The level of significance was 0.01. Goodness of fit was assessed by visual examination of various residual scatterplots.
Pharmacodynamic model. In P. falciparum malaria, parasitemia is known to exhibit cyclic fluctuations due to the sequestration of mature parasites (6). However, owing to the sparse sampling schedule for parasitemia measurements, it was not possible to describe precisely the effect of quinine on the kinetics of parasitemia. The effect of quinine was measured by determination of the time required for a 104-fold reduction in the initial level of parasitemia (Ter). The factor of 104 was chosen because it was of the order of the initial parasitemia. Ter was estimated for each patient as 4/k, where k is the slope of the regression line of log10 parasitemia versus time during the first 3 days of treatment. For antibacterial agents, k is usually related to the concentration of the drug by a Hill model. Hence, Ter was expected to be related to quinine exposure (e.g., Cav) by an inverse Hill model, such as Ter = Tmin · [1 + (C50/Cav)s], where Tmin is the time to eradication at infinite Cav, C50 is the value of Cav for which Ter is twice Tmin, and s is a sigmoidicity coefficient. The parameters of this model cannot be estimated with reasonable precision because three parameters must be determined but only one Ter value is measured per individual. Therefore, a Bayesian approach (2) was applied to the following three-stage hiearchical model. The independent variable was Cav. Individual values of Cav were the post hoc estimates obtained from the population model for pharmacokinetics. At the first stage, the Ter observations are assumed to arise from a normal distribution with the mean equal to the predicted value of Ter. At the second stage, the distribution of Tmin and C50 are assumed to be lognormal, with the moments (mean and variance) to be estimated. At the third stage, the moments of these lognormal distributions are given an a prior distribution: a lognormal prior distribution for the mean and a gamma prior distribution for the precision (i.e., the inverse of variance). These prior distributions were moderately informative, as shown in Table 1. Since parasitemia was undetectable at 72 h in all children, the prior distribution of the mean Tmin was centered on 72/2, which is equal to 36 h. The prior distribution of the mean C50 was centered on 6 mg/liter, which is the lower bound of the therapeutic range for quinine when it is administered by continuous infusion (3). The coefficient of sigmoidicity, s, was fixed at either 1, 2, 3, or 4. The posterior distributions of the mean and the CV of Tmin and C50 were obtained by Monte Carlo Markov chain simulation by using WinBugs 1.4 (6a). Convergence was assessed by checking the stability of the posterior distributions. Goodness of fit was assessed by visual examination of the residual scatterplots and the posterior distributions. In particular, a multimodal posterior distribution was considered indicative of a conflict between the prior distribution and the data. Sensitivity to assumptions about the prior distribution was determined by fitting the model with different assumptions.
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TABLE 1. Characteristics of the prior distributions for the Bayesian analysis of the pharmacodynamic model
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Clinical assessment. The follow-up rate was 100%. The numbers of patients exhibiting a clinical sign at day 5 and the numbers of patients exhibiting this sign at inclusion were 1 and 28, respectively, for fever; 2 and 11, respectively, for cough; 0 and 9, respectively, for vomiting; and 1 and 25, respectively, for inappetence. Vomiting had ceased in all patients by day 3. Fever, cough, and inappetence had disappeared in all patients by day 7. No side effect related to quinine treatment was observed.
Pharmacokinetics of quinine.
The final model for quinine pharmacokinetics is the model described in Materials and Methods. The fit of this model was significantly better than that of reduced models with no covariate (i.e., models that do not account for variation of CL or V with body weight:
5 = 0 or
6 = 0) or reduced models with time-independent protein binding (b = 0). In particular, the latter reduced model was unable to fit the final minimum plasma concentrations. The interindividual variability of CL/F and V/F was better correlated with body weight than with age. Hence, it is more appropriate to adjust the quinine dose with respect to body weight than with respect to age, at least among children in this age range. The intercept of the clearance model (
1) was not significantly different from 0; therefore, it was fixed to 0. Since the unbound fraction of quinine had not been measured, the typical value of b, the slope parameter for fu, could not be estimated and was fixed to 0.001/h to be consistent with the available data (but interindividual variability of b was allowed). With this value, the typical value of fu increased from 0.114 at the onset of treatment to 0.186 at 72 h. For a 15-kg child, the typical values of quinine CL/F and V/F increased during the same period from 0.91 to 1.48 liters/h and from 13 to 21 liters, respectively. These values are similar to those obtained by White et al. (8) in adults with uncomplicated malaria caused by P. falciparum (CL is 1.21 liters/h and V is 25 liters for a 15-kg child). By contrast, the typical elimination half-life is independent of time; for a 15-kg child it is 9.1 h. The plot of predicted concentrations (based on the post hoc estimates of the parameters) versus observed concentrations shows random scatter (Fig. 1A). The estimates of the parameters of the final model are shown in Table 2. The CV of the residual error was 22%. Figure 2 shows the mean curve of quinine kinetics and the interindividual variability superimposed on the observed data.
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FIG. 1. (A) Predicted versus observed quinine concentrations in plasma; (B) predicted versus observed time to 4-log reduction of Plasmodium falciparum initial parasitemia. The lines of identity are shown indicated.
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TABLE 2. Values of the parameters of the population model for quinine pharmacokinetics
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FIG. 2. Kinetics of mean plasma quinine concentration. The dose is 8.3 mg/kg every 8 h. The line is the curve yielded by the mean parameters. The crosses are the mean predictions. The vertical lines represent ±1 SD. The squares are the observed concentrations for the 30 children.
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FIG. 3. (A) Histogram of the observed time to a 4-log reduction of Plasmodium falciparum initial parasitemia; (B) histogram of the average concentration of quinine in plasma yielding half the maximal antimicrobial effect.
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View this table: [in a new window] |
TABLE 3. Characteristics of the posterior distributions for the Bayesian analysis of the pharmacodynamic model
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FIG. 4. Time to to 4-log reduction of Plasmodium falciparum initial parasitemia as a function of average concentration of quinine in plasma. The line is the curve yielded by the mean parameters. The crosses are the mean predictions. The vertical lines represent ±1 SD.
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